Let’s be real… by the time Oscar weekend hits, the winners become quite easy to predict. Guild awards, press buzz, and campaign details make it very easy to determine which nominees are going home with gold during the ceremony. But the Academy Awards are certainly not void of potential surprises. Last year, Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone were practically neck and neck for the Best Actress Oscar, and I definitely received a dent in my prediction bets when Emma Stone won (I predicted Gladstone after she won the SAG). This year is also just a bit more unpredictable when it comes to certain categories. Let’s observe some of the potential surprises we could see Sunday night, with some being more likely to occur than others.
Best Animated Feature
FLOW beats THE WILD ROBOT and INSIDE OUT 2?
Disney/Pixar and DreamWorks have notably been the two most dominant studios in this category, but the Academy has also shown increasing favor to underdogs. The Wild Robot is looking like a very strong contender to win, but Inside Out 2 has always been such a darling since its release last June. These are two very heavy contenders up against such a small Latvian film like Flow, which is a lot more experimental than your average film in this category. Last year I put my bets on Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to win Animated Feature as it was the powerhouse big studio film among the nominees, but the Academy clearly wanted to throw on last honor to Hayao Miyazaki when The Boy and the Heron swept the award from Spidey. Flow has proven a strong contender this year as it is also nominated for Best International Feature and clearly it has favor with voters. My prediction is Flow will very likely pull the win.
Best International Feature
I’M STILL HERE bests EMILIA PÉREZ?
Emilia Pérez has been mired in controversy throughout this entire race. This includes insensitive past tweets from Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón and less than thought out comments from filmmaker Jacques Audiard. The film has been the most reviled nominee among this year’s contenders, further elevated by its dominance at the Golden Globes. It has been viewed as a poorly crafted musical with a tone deaf and ignorant approach to its intended themes, to the point that a certain “phallic” musical number has become a social media meme. Initially this was easily the frontrunner in this category, but now, I don’t think it is. This category is going to be the one where I’m Still Here takes the win. Fernanda Torres, whose performance was fantastic still sits in the shadow of Demi Moore and Mikey Madison, and Emilia Pérez will most likely walk out with one award (I’ll get to that shortly), but this is going to be the Brazilian gem’s singular Oscar night win. Lock it in, I’m Still Here will win this category.
Best Original Song
ELTON JOHN stuns EMILIA PÉREZ?
Up until this week, with two nominations in this category, I felt Emilia Pérez would win for “El Mal.” But I think the Academy has shied away from this. A fellow TikTok user joked that they are going to vote for Elton so they can be granted access to his lavish afterparty. While this isn’t the exact reason I think he will win, I’m sure he will feel inclined to welcome voters to the party if they get him to the podium. Elton previously won an Oscar in 2020 for a song from his biopic Rocketman, but this year, I think he will win for his own documentary. It’ll be the ideal way for the Academy to cement his legacy at this point in his career. I predict Elton sweeps it from Emilia.
Best Supporting Actress
ARIANA GRANDE shocks ZOE SALDAÑA?
Zoe Saldaña has won every precursor this season. She has meticulously distanced herself from the controversy around her film and seemingly remained the only solid contender among Emilia Pérez’s 13 nominations. I think she’s a lock to be the only winner for this film, but it’s not unlikely the film won’t leave the Dolby Theatre empty handed. The Academy may have fully turned on Emilia Pérez. They may have just decided to honor Ariana Grande for his wonderful work in Wicked, but I feel they are still inclined to honor Saldaña’s work as a way to say, “this film has a lot of controversy, but we don’t want to punish you for it.” Saldaña still wins, marking her the only winner for this controversial and reviled film. Those precursors speak volumes.
Best Actress
DEMI or MIKEY?
This one is definitely not as tough to call as the next and final category I will discuss. Mikey Madison looked strong for Anora for a good amount of this race, but I think Demi Moore has this in the bag. It started at the Globes and her impassioned speech, and I feel the SAG win has solidified it. Moore has been doing this for four decades, this is her biggest moment, and the Academy LOVES legacy Oscars. I’m going with Demi Moore.
Best Actor
To BRODY or to CHALAMET? That is the question.
This is the toughest category to predict. Adrien Brody and Timothee Chalamet are practically neck and neck for the Best Actor Oscar. Brody has kept a lot of momentum and his work in The Brutalist has Oscar bait written all over it. But a few weeks ago, I stated that I would not be surprised if Chalamet becomes the frontrunner. His SAG win complicated this a bit more and while the Academy loves dedicated performances in biopics, here are my final thoughts after days of back-and-forth thoughts… The SAG is Chalamet’s reward. It elevates his accomplishments. He’s young, he has a whole career ahead of him and without a doubt, he is destined to win. The Academy will feel more inclined to give Brody a second Oscar for two reasons: They don’t know if he will ever make it this far again, so they’ll reward him a second Oscar while they have the chance and it will be the biggest award The Brutalist, a film they clearly love, will win on Oscar night. it’s certain that Brady Corbet isn’t winning Best Director and Anora looks to have Best Picture in the bag. Here comes two-time Brody.
You can tune in to the Academy Awards Sunday March 2, 2025 at 7pm EST/4pm PST on ABC or HULU.
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Adam Khromachou has been a lifelong film watcher. It all began in 1989 at the age of 6
when his mom took him to see Tim Burton’s Batman. From then on, he knew cinema
was his passion. By the age of 8, he was learning about actors, directors, and even
began exploring the history of cinema. At the age of 12, a big turning point occurred
when he watched Quentin Tarantino’s Pulp Fiction. It was the moment he really started
diving deep into films outside of the action and comedy genre and looked to explore
more classic cinema through breaking down the film’s notable influences. He obtained a
Bachelor's and Master's degree from Arizona State and in 2021, he launched his TikTok
channel Sunset Loner Cinema where he reviews and ranks films, as well as providing
in-depth cinematic retrospectives. His content can also be found on Instagram and
YouTube. He is also an avid user of Letterboxd and considers himself a cinema purist,
believing that films should be experienced in theaters without interruptions or
distractions. His favorite films include Pulp Fiction, GoodFellas, Cinema Paradiso, Jaws,
and The Big Lebsowski. He is also the co-host of the podcast Before We Were
Streaming.